[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 23 10:51:35 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low. Region
1041 produced several B class flares and new region 1042 emerged
(N22W28). The solar wind speed decreased from ~440km/s at 0000UT
to be 360km/s at the time of this report. The Interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component ranged between +2nT and -4nT over
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low
for the next 3 days with chance of C-class events and the slight
chance of an M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11211012
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 3 12111012
Learmonth 2 11011012
Canberra 3 01301001
Hobart 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1321 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 4 Quiet
24 Jan 4 Quiet
25 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions observed for all regions
over the last 24 hours. Sporadic E effects observed at Northern
AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Normal ionospheric
support expected for the next 3 days as the observed ionising
EUV and x-ray flux levels remain slightly elevated due to current
active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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