[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 26 10:51:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained mostly below 400 km/s
over the past 24 hours; the interplanetary magnetic field Bz
component ranged between +5 and -4 nT. Sunspot regions 1041 and
1042 continue to have the capability of producing C-, and possibly,
M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet. Quiet to
unsettled at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 2 11111002
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 4 11122111
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1122 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 5 Quiet
27 Jan 5 Quiet
28 Jan 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values, depressions to 30%
20-21 UT. Sporadic E observed 11-13, 16, 20-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values, depressions to 25%
03-05 UT. Some night spread F.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
01-04 UT at Townsville. Sporadic E observed at Darwin
03-11 UT and Townsville 04-06, 22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
01-04 UT at Brisbane. Sporadic E observed mostly 00-08
UT with blanketing of the F region 02 UT at Brisbane
and 03-04 UT at Canberra. Some night spread F observed
at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may affect F region communications at times,
mostly during daylight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 43900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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