[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 6 12:40:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 74/11 76/14
COMMENT: AR1039 has nearly rotated off the visible solar disc
and no C-class or higher X-ray flares were visible today. The
STEREO-B spacecraft shows a small coronal hole and several active
regions about to rotate onto the visible disc in the next few
days. Solar wind remained in a moderate 300-340km/s range. IMF
Bz component mostly near zero or only slightly southwards, generally
not conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 7 2-------
Learmonth 3 21111101
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 2 11211000
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0021 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 3 Quiet
07 Jan 3 Quiet
08 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at mid-latitudes was
Quiet due to the moderate solar wind speeds and lack of sustained
southward or strongly varying IMF Bz. High-latitudes were also
mostly Quiet. No significant coronal holes are on the visible
disc, so no high speed solar wind expected for several days and
the geomagnetic field should remain generally Quiet in the absence
of extended IMF Bz southward periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs remain moderately depressed compared with predicted
monthly values, presumably due to summer seasonal interhemispheric
(south to north) winds. With AR1039 rotating off the disc there
is less compensating ionising EUV and X-ray flux. Several active
regions can be seen by the STEREO-B spacecraft, rotating toward
earthward, and should add extra ionising flux in a few days.
Moderate variability observed over mid-latitudes but high variability
as usual at northern sub-equatorial latitudes from winds and
electric fields as geomagnetic activity is Quiet. Extensive sporadic
E was observed across Australia, much of it non-blanketing but
still screening the F-layer substantially.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list