[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 10

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               74/11              76/14





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Darwin               2   21111001
      Townsville           7   2-------
      Learmonth            2   21111100
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Hobart               2   11211000
      Casey(Ant)           -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0021 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan     7    Quiet 
07 Jan     6    Quiet 
08 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Niue Island Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 304 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    58200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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