[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 7 10:28:21 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: R1039 issued a B-class X-ray flare before rotating off
the visible solar disc. A new as yet un-numbered region just
rotating onto the disc issued three B-class flares. The STEREO-B
spacecraft shows several active regions about to rotate onto
the visible disc in the next few days. Some of these may be returning
regions AR1036 (due 8th Jan) that was growing last transit and
AR1038 (due 8th Jan). Solar wind remained in a moderate 300-350km/s
range. IMF Bz component was moderately southwards -4nT 00-04UT,
conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field but otherwise
northwards or zero. The STEREO-B spacecraft observed a -5nT Bz
that is assumed to be a co-rotating structure in the solar wind,
expected at Earth ~9-10th Jan (UT).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 1 1111000-
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 3 Quiet
08 Jan 3 Quiet
09 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at mid-latitudes was
very Quiet due to the moderate solar wind speeds and lack of
sustained (>12hrs) southward or strongly varying IMF Bz.
High-latitudes
were Unsettled to Active early in the UT day from a moderate
southwards -4nT IMF Bz but otherwise Quiet. A small-medium coronal
hole is on the eastern side of the visible disc and STEREO-B
spacecraft observed a -5nT Bz that is assumed to be a co-rotating
structure in the solar wind, expected at Earth ~9-10Jan (UT)
with associated geomagnetic disturbances. Geomagnetic field should
remain generally Quiet in the absence of extended IMF Bz southward
periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
08 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
09 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up slightly and are only mildly depressed
compared with predicted monthly values. Possibly due to weakening
of summer seasonal interhemispheric (south to north) winds and
some compensating ionising EUV and X-ray flux from the departing
AR1039 and a new as yet un-numbered region just rotating onto
the disc that provided three B-class X-ray flares. Several active
regions can be seen by the STEREO-B spacecraft, rotating earthward
(see solar section), and should add extra ionising flux from
today or tomorrow onwards. Variability was reduced compared with
the last few days especially at near-equatorial latitudes with
some of the variability moving south (Townsville, Brisbane, Norfolk
Is). Extensive sporadic E was again observed across Australia,
especially morning blanketing Es at central and southern east
coast (Sydney, Canberra, Hobart) sites. The Southern Ocean at
NZ latitudes may also be experiencing strong morning Es from
the widespread returns observed in the TIGER over-the-horizon
HF radar field of view.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list