[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 19 10:34:22 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 84/26
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 370 and 390 km/s until around
0500UT, then increased to 450 km/s by mid-day and then stayed
near this value for the remaining part of the UT day. The
north-south component Bz of the IMF stayed positve upto +5nT
by 1000UT, then showed fluctuations between +/-5nT and then
turned positive around 1900UT. Bz stayed positive for the
remaining part of the day. Solar wind stream may remain slightly
strengthened on 19 February due to a recurrent pattern. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21122221
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 7 22122321
Learmonth 5 11122221
Canberra 2 10011210
Hobart 6 11122321
Casey(Ant) 9 2-332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2200 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 6 Quiet
21 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels over the UT day today with isolated
active periods recorded at some high latitude stations.
Activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on 19 February and then gradually decline to quiet
levels for the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
on 18 February. Sporadic-E was observed on low and some mid
latitude locations. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for most locations for the next three days with
some possibility of minor degradations at high latitudes
on 19 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 38 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
20%.
20 Feb 42 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
21 Feb 42 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region
were mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days for most parts of this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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