[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 18 10:38:06 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 86/29
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed mostly between 340 and 380 km/s
during the UT day today. The north-south component Bz of
the IMF gradually turned from -5nT around the beginning
of the UT day to positive values around 0500UT. Bz stayed
mostly close to the normal values for most parts of the
remaining day. Solar wind stream may remain slightly
strengthened on 18 and 19 February due to a recurrent pattern.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 4 21010023
Canberra 1 10000002
Hobart 4 22111112
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 4233 0103
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
19 Feb 6 Quiet
20 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels over the UT day today with isolated
active periods recorded at some high latitude stations.
Activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels on 18 February and then gradually
decline to quiet levels for the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
on 17 February. Strong sporadic-E was observed on low and
some mid latitude locations. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 29 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
19 Feb 31 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
20%.
20 Feb 31 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
20%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region
were mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted
monthly values or slightly enhanced. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days for most
parts of this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 54500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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