[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 20 10:33:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar Activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed mostly between 420 and 480 km/s during
the UT day today. The north-south component Bz of the IMF stayed
mostly positive upto +5nT. Isolated periods of negative Bz were
also observed between 1000 and 1400UT and again around 1900UT.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled conditions.
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21112121
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 5 21112122
Learmonth 4 21012130
Canberra 2 12001011
Hobart 4 21112121
Casey(Ant) 9 --332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0000 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 4 Quiet
21 Feb 4 Quiet
22 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet levels with
isolated unsettled periods over the UT day today. Activity is
expected to remain mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations on
19 February. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
21 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
22 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region
were mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days for most parts of this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 99400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list