[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              77/16              80/20

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low over the UT day with no 
significant solar flares. Similar conditions are expected 05 
Feb. Active region 1043 (N26W33) remains stable. The solar wind 
speed has dropped back below 400km/s and the IMF Bz component 
is stable near 0nT. A coronal hole wind stream is expected late 
06 Feb. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Darwin               2   21100102
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            2   21100111
      Canberra             1   11000001
      Hobart               3   12111111
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-321113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3133 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb     3    Quiet 
06 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Feb    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
Quiet conditions today (05 Feb), becoming Unsettled with isolated 
Active periods from late 06 Feb due to the arrival of a coronal 
hole wind stream. Mostly Unsettled with a chance of isolated 
Active periods 07 Feb with Minor Storm conditions likely at high 
latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Feb     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    -2    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly 
values. The sustained intervals of blanketing sporadic E observed 
over previous days were not evident in the last 24 hours. Expect 
mostly normal HF conditions 05 Feb with MUFs mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Some minor MUF depressions possible at S.Aus 
and Antarctic locations. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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