[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 4 10:35:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low over the UT day with no
significant solar flares. Similar conditions are expected 04
Feb. Active region 1043 (N25W20) remains stable. The solar wind
speed remains elevated near 500km/s under the influence of a
weak coronal hole wind stream. The moderate fluctuations (+/-5nT)
in IMF Bz observed over the previous 2-3 days have moderated.
Expect declining solar wind speeds next 2 days (04-05 Feb). A
subsequent coronal hole wind stream is expected late 06 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 32232222
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 8 32232211
Learmonth 10 32223322
Canberra 5 21232101
Hobart 10 32332222
Casey(Ant) 11 ---33232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3212 2214
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 5 Quiet
05 Feb 3 Quiet
06 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day with some isolated Minor Storm periods at high
latitudes. The elevated activity was in response to continuing
elevated solar wind speeds. Expect mostly quiet conditions at
mid and low latitudes 04 Feb with some isolated Active to Minor
Storm conditions at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal-poor Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region ranged
from mostly normal to poor over the UT day. MUFs were mostly
near predicted monthly values with some strong enhancements during
the day in the equatorial regions. However there were again sustained
intervals of blanketing sporadic E as observed at multiple sites
across the Australian region, in particular around the mid-latitude
sites of Brisbane, Sydney and Canberra between 6 and 18UT. Expect
similar conditions 04 Feb. Sporadic E is again likely to occur
at mid latitude sites and may affect F-region communications
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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