[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 6 10:26:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 83/24 85/27
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low over the UT day. Two minor
B-class flares were recorded for the period, one from newly numbered
region 1044 and one possibly associated with the un-numbered
active regions near the eastern limb. Expect Very Low solar sctivity
to continue 06 Feb with a slight chance of a C-class flare from
the active regions in the north-east sector. A coronal hole wind
stream is expected late 06 Feb or 07 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 2 21100201
Townsville 4 22111211
Learmonth 2 22011100
Canberra 1 11001100
Hobart 4 22111211
Casey(Ant) 7 2--31212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 3 Quiet
07 Feb 10 Mostly Unsettled with isolated Active periods
08 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions today (06 Feb), becoming Unsettled with
isolated Active periods 07 Feb due to the arrival of a coronal
hole wind stream. Isolated periods of Minor Storm conditions
likely at high latitudes 07-08 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs mostly near predicted
monthly values. There were some minor MUF depressions in S.Aus
and variability in MUFs at equatorial latitudes. Expect mostly
normal HF conditions 06 Feb with MUFs near predicted monthly
values and strengthening over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 72900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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