[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 21 10:27:28 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is presently spotless. Solar
wind speed ranged between 355 and 435 km/s over the last 24 hours.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component ranged between
+6/-8 nT and was mostly negative inducing weak reconnection with
the Earth's magnetic field. Observed a CME on the east limb,
first noted at 20/0600UT on C2 imagery. It is not expected to
be geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33323122
Darwin 9 33223122
Townsville 9 33223122
Learmonth 9 33223122
Canberra 9 23323122
Hobart 12 24333222
Casey(Ant) 16 34432233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 4 Quiet
22 Dec 4 Quiet
23 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Observed Quiet to Unsettled conditions in the Australian/NZ
region with isolated Active periods at higher latitudes due to
weak reconnection induced by a prolong negative Bz component
in the IMF. Expect a return to Quiet levels for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during the UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
22 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect minor depressions today, 21 December, due to
mild disturbances of the geomagnetic field particularly at higher
latitudes. Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications
at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list