[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 20 10:31:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. Solar wind parameters
were undisturbed; speed ranging between 360 and 430 km/s and
the north-south IMF between +5 to -4 nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 3 11110112
Learmonth 4 22111112
Canberra 2 12100002
Hobart 2 12100002
Casey(Ant) 8 34321113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 5 Quiet
21 Dec 5 Quiet
22 Dec 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
00-03, 23 UT and to 35% 22 UT. No data 16-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
17-18 and 23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
17-23 UT at Darwin and to 25% 01-02, 13 and 22-23 UT
at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% mostly
00-05, 09-13 and 18-23 UT at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
14-16 UT Macquarie Is. and to 20% 07-10 UT at Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
21 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
22 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 62800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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