[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 14 10:30:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Two new regions, 1134 (N19W33) and 1135 (N18E56). ACE
data shows the solar wind speed increasing from about 420 to
600 km/s over the reporting period while the north-south IMF
component ranged between +6 to -7 nT. Solar wind speed should
remain high day one with solar wind parameters becoming disturbed
around the start of day two due to the effects of a coronal hole
and the CMEs on 12 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to unsettled.
Active to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 32222323
Darwin 8 22122323
Townsville 10 32222233
Learmonth 9 32121323
Canberra 7 22211223
Hobart 10 33311223
Casey(Ant) 15 55543333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0000 1312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
Minor storm periods likely at high latitudes.
16 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods likely
at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase at the start of day
two in response to CME activity on 12 Dec and the effects of
a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% 00-05 UT. No data 06-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00-01, 19-23 UT at Darwin and 23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
15 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
16 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F may affect night communications at higher
latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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