[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 13 10:47:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 12 December.
Expect no significant flare activity over the next three days.
Solar wind speed increased from 300 to 450 km/s over the last
24 hours. Expect the solar wind stream to remain elevated today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +10/-7nT over the last 24 hours and was mostly positive,
therefore, there was no significant reconnection observed. SOHO
and STEREO imagery showed CME activity first observed on LASCO
C2 imagery at 0412UT. STEREO images indicate it is Earthside
activity associated with reported filament eruption and and
long duration B-class x-ray flare beginning at 0337UT and ending
at 0906UT. Expect possible geomagnetic influence.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 21211323
Darwin 8 22212323
Townsville 8 12212323
Learmonth 9 21112423
Canberra 4 00101223
Hobart 2 20100---
Casey(Ant) 11 33311233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 12 Unsettled
14 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity went from mostly Quiet to Unsettled
in the Australian/NZ and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours.
Expect Unsettled conditions to prevail over the UT day, 13 December,
due to the increase in the solar wind stream velocity. The following
two days are expected to return to mostly Quiet levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
14 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
15 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Possible mild
depressions expected today and tomorrow, 13-14 December, due to an
increase geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 46200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list