[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 12 10:03:29 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 89/33 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 11 December.
Expect no significant flare activity over the next three days.
Solar wind speed decreased from 375 to 310 km/s over the last
24 hours. Expect the solar wind stream to be elevated for the
next two days due to recurrent coronal hole. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +-4/-2nT
over the last 24 hours. LASCO C3 imagery showed a weak CME on
the west limb initially observed on the 0718UT image. It is not
expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Darwin 5 22212111
Townsville 5 22212121
Learmonth 2 11111011
Canberra 1 01101000
Casey(Ant) 9 33322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Dec 12 Unsettled
14 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet in the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect Quiet to
Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of Active levels at
high latitudes for the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
14 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Possible mild depressions
expected on 13-14 December. Observed isolated cases of sporadic E in
the Ausrtralian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 40600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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