[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 11 10:04:33 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 89/33
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 10 December.
Expect no significant flare activity over the next three days.
Solar wind speed increased from 320 to 360 km/s over the last
24 hours and is presently 350 km/s. Expect the solar wind stream
to be elevated for the next three days due to recurrent coronal
hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-4nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22121121
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 5 222211--
Learmonth 3 11121111
Canberra 1 11110010
Hobart 2 121100--
Casey(Ant) 7 2--31122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 12 Unsettled
13 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet in the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect Quiet to
Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of Active levels at
high latitudes for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
13 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect possible
mild depressions for the next three days due to expected disturbances
in the geomagnetic field induced by an increase in the solar
wind speed. Observed sporadic E at Casey station between 15-17UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 45300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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