[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 10 10:37:11 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 9 December.
Expect no significant flare activity over the next three days.
Solar wind speed decreased from 400 to 320 km/s over the last
24 hours. Expect a gradual increase in the solar wind speed today,
10 december and larger increase on 11-12 December due to recurrent
coronal hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +/-3nT over the last 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 5 22112112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 22112111
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 1 11101001
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1031
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 6 Quiet
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet in the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect similar
conditions today, 10 December. On 11-12 December expect Quiet
to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of Active levels
at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the northern
Austalian region with minor depressions observed in the southern
Australian/NZ and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect
this trend to continue for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 62900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list