[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 9 10:25:12 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 8 December.
Expect no significant flare activity over the next three days.
Solar wind speed increased from 360 to 425 km/s over the last
24 hours and is presently 390 km/s. Expect a gradual increase
in the solar wind speed over the next three days. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT over
the last 24 hours. LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME on the east
limb initially observed at 1212UT. It is not expected to be
geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22211221
Townsville 7 22221232
Learmonth 8 22222322
Canberra 4 12200221
Hobart 6 13211221
Casey(Ant) 11 3--22332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1010 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
with isolated cases of Active levels were observed at high latitudes.
Expect this trend to continue for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the northern
Austalian region with minor depressions observed in the southern
Australian/NZ and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Expect
this trend to continue for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 48700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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