[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 8 10:21:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 7 December.
Expect B-class x-ray flares and a slight chance of a C-class flare
from active regions 11131 and 11133 over the next three days. Solar
wind speed increased from 345 to 385 km/s over the last 24 hours.
Expect an increase in the solar wind speed over the next three days
due to a weak recurrent coronal hole. During last rotation the solar
wind speed gradually increased to just over 500 km/s during a two
day period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +/-6nT over the last 24 hours. LASCO C3 imagery showed
a CME on the west limb initially observed at 1518UT. It is not
expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 12322212
Townsville 7 12322222
Learmonth 8 12332222
Canberra 6 01322212
Hobart 6 01322212
Casey(Ant) 14 3-522222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 12 Unsettled
09 Dec 12 Unsettled
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases of Active levels
are expected over the next three days due to an expected increase
in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 25 near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the Austalian/NZ
region over the last 24 hours. Normal ionospheric support expected
for today, 08 December. Minor depressions expected for the following
two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 18200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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