[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 7 10:46:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 89/33 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Expect B-class x-ray flares and a slight chance of C-class flares
from active regions 11131 and 11133 over the next three days.
Holloman Solar Observatory reported a disappearing solar filament
in the south east quadrant between 1541 and 1640 UT. Also observed
was an eruptive prominence on the limb between 1651 and 1725 UT.
Neither is expected to have a significant affect on the near
Earth environment. Solar wind speed increased from 275 to 350
km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at this
level today, 7 December. A solar sector boundry crossing was
detected by ACE at approximately 1800UT. On 08-09 December expect
the solar wind to increase due to weak recurrent coronal hole.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12211222
Darwin 5 122-----
Townsville 7 13222222
Learmonth 4 11111222
Canberra 2 01111111
Hobart 3 02111111
Casey(Ant) 9 23322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 4 Quiet
08 Dec 12 Unsettled
09 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected today 07 December. Unsettled
conditions with isolated cases of Active levels are expected
08-09 December due to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for the Austalian/NZ
region over the last 24 hours. Monthly Predicted T index may be a
little high for this period in the solar cycle. Normal ionospheric
support expected for the next two days with a possibility of minor
depressions on 09 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 281 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 16400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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