[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 15 10:31:37 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 86/29
COMMENT: Region 1133 (N15W61) produced a C2.3 flare at 1550 UT
in conjunction with a local filament eruption. STEREO images
also show an associated CME which is likely to be geo-effective.
ACE data show the solar wind was disturbed with wind speed ranging
from 490 to 690 km/s and the north-south IMF component between
+/-6 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed
over the forecast period due to a favourably positioned coronal
hole and CME activity on the 12 Dec. The 14 Dec CME is expected
to be geo-effective around the middle of day two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 23234333
Darwin 9 22223223
Townsville 13 23233333
Learmonth 11 22224332
Canberra 9 13223223
Hobart 15 13334333
Casey(Ant) 19 55544333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2220 0022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active and minor
storm periods likely particularly at higher latitudes.
16 Dec 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods with
minor storm conditions at higher latitudes.
17 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods at
higher latitudes.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 14 December
and is current for interval 15-17 December. Expected activity
due to a favourably positioned coronal hole and CME activity
on 12 and 14 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. No data 16-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressions to 30% 00-03 and 20-22 UT. Enhancements
to 25% 11-18 UT and near predicted monthly values at
other times at Darwin. Near predicted monthly values
at Townsville with enhancments to 25% 05-08 and 18-19
UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
observed after 17 UT at most stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
16 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
17 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 14 December
and is current for interval 15 December only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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