[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 24 09:31:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 300 km/s until about
1230 UT after which solar wind parameters became disturbed due
to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed
increased to 410 km/s at the time of this report and is expected
to further increase and remain elevated for the forecast period.
The north-south IMF component ranged between +10/-15 nT and is
likely to remain disturbed for the first half of day one, then
quieten.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet with unsettled
levels 21-2330 UT.
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11111113
Darwin 6 22211113
Townsville 7 12212223
Learmonth 3 11011112
Canberra 1 00000003
Hobart 2 10001003
Casey(Ant) 3 22100102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4 1000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 14 Mostly unsettled with an isolated active period.
Possible minor storm levels at high latitudes.
25 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
26 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
08-10, 13, 16-17 and 21-23 UT. Depressions to 45%
14-15 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
01, 07-18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
at Darwin 05, 08-14 UT. Mostly 15-20% depressed at
Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
times 08-16 UT Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart. Night
spread F observed at most stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
25 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
26 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 279 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 23100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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