[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 23 09:36:06 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 270 and 300 km/s during
the UT day today and the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field mostly stayed between +/3nT over the last 24
hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 1 11010000
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 10001001
Casey(Ant) 2 12101001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active periods.
24 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
25 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
levels today. Recurrence pattern suggests possible rise
in geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels with some
possibility of isolated active periods on 23 August.
Mostly unsettled conditions may be expected for 24 August.
Geomagnetic activity may again rise to unsettled levels with
the possibility of some active periods on 25 August due to
a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole that will
be in a geoeffective position around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions with periods
of minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations were
observed on most locations today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Aug 21 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the UT day today with periods of minor to
moderate depressions at some low and mid latitudes locations.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days as geomagnetic
activity may rise during this period due to coronal hole effect.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 21800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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