[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 22 09:51:40 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 280 and 310 km/s during the UT
day today and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field mostly stayed between +/3nT over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 2 11110111
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 3 12011210
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 2 11101101
Casey(Ant) 3 22201100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1000 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 4 Quiet
23 Aug 10 Unsettled with some possibility of active periods.
24 Aug 8 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels
today. Similar levels of activity may be expected on 22 August.
Recurrence pattern suggests possible rise in geomagnetic activity
to unsettled levels with some possibility of isolated active
periods on 23 August. Mostly unsettled conditions may be expected
for 24 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today. Similar HF conditions may be expected on 22
August with some possibility of minor degradations in
conditions on 23 and 24 August due to possible rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 23 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Aug 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the UT day today. Nearly simialr HF conditions
may be expected on 22 August. Minor degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on 23 and 24 August due to the possibility of some
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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