[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 21 09:51:01 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 330 to 300 km/s during
the UT day today and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field mostly stayed between +/4nT over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 5 12212212
Learmonth 3 21111111
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 2 10111111
Casey(Ant) 3 21111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1212 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 4 Quiet
22 Aug 4 Quiet
23 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels
today. Similar levels of activity may be expected on 21 and 22
August. Recurrence pattern suggests possible rise in geomagnetic
activity to unsettled levels with some possibility of isolated
active periods on 23 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations on 19 August. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of minor degradations
in conditions on 23 August due to possible rise in geomagnetic
activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the UT day today. Simialr HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days with some possibility of
minor degradations on 23 August due to the possibility of
some rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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