[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 20 09:22:12 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 350 to
320 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field mostly stayed slightly
negative upto around -2nT over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 2 11012001
Canberra 0 00011000
Hobart 3 11121101
Casey(Ant) 5 23211101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2211 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 5 Quiet
21 Aug 4 Quiet
22 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
levels today. Similar levels of activity may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on
most locations on 19 August. Similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the UT day today. Simialr HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation to the ionospheric conditions is expected during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 53200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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