[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 20 09:22:12 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              77/16
COMMENT:  Solar activity  was  very  low over the last 24 
hours.  Solar wind speed  gradually decreased from 350 to 
320 km/s during the UT day  today and the Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field  mostly stayed slightly 
negative upto around  -2nT over  the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11101011
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            2   11012001
      Canberra             0   00011000
      Hobart               3   11121101
      Casey(Ant)           5   23211101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2211 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug     5    Quiet 
21 Aug     4    Quiet 
22 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT:  Geomagnetic activity remained  mostly at quiet 
levels today. Similar levels of activity may be expected 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly  normal HF conditions were observed on 
most locations on 19 August. Similar HF conditions may 
be expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Aug    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 
      by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations  during  the UT day today. Simialr HF conditions 
may be expected for the next three  days as no significant 
variation to the ionospheric conditions is expected during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    53200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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