[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 25 09:32:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to around 700 km/s by 1300
UT and is expected to remain elevated for the forecast period.
The north-south IMF component ranged between about +20/-15 nT
then settled after about 09 UT to range between +/-6 nT. New
region 1101 (N12E79) was numbered and has been magnetically
classified as an alpha group.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to active
with minor storm levels 06-09 UT at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 33334323
Darwin 14 33333323
Townsville 15 33334323
Learmonth 18 33434423
Canberra 13 33343212
Hobart 13 32244312
Casey(Ant) 15 34533323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1000 1224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 13 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
26 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 Aug 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
06-11, 16-17 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
enhancements to 20%. Depressions to 30% 01-02, 11-14
UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
03-08, 13, 14, 17 and 21 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressions to 20% 00-09 UT then near predicted
monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
26 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
27 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 16000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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