[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 17 09:43:42 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Active region (AR) 1099(N17W85) produced several
B and one C class x-ray flare during the UT day, 16 August.
Solar wind speed ranged from 360 to 400 km/s over the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-4 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar wind stream
is expected to stay stronger on 17 and 18 August due to the
anticipations of arrivals of two CMEs that were observed
on 14 and 15 August. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next 3 days with some possibility of
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22211221
Darwin 5 22211121
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 5 22211221
Canberra 4 22110121
Hobart 6 12222221
Casey(Ant) 5 22211221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2201 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may rise to usettled levels
with the possibility of some active periods on 17 and 18
August due to the anticipated arrival of two CMEs that were
observed on 14 and 15 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to return to mostly quiet levels on 19 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations on 16 August. Minor to moderated degradations in
HF conditions may be expected, especially on mid and high
latitude locations, on 17 and 18 August due an expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF conditions
are expected to return to mostly normal levels on 19 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Aug 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
19 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 16
August on most locations in the Aus/NZ region. Minor to
moderate degradations in HF conditions may be expected on
17 and 18 August mainly in the southern Aus/NZ regions
due an anticipated rise in geomagnetic conditions on these
days. HF conditions are expectected to return to mostly normal
levels on 19 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 62000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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