[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 18 09:45:35 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 81/22 80/20
COMMENT: Active region (AR) 1099 produced several B-class
x-ray flares during the UT day today, the largest being a
B7.6 that peaked at 1603UT. The solar wind speed ranged from
370 to 400 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-4 nT over
the last 24 hours. The previously anticipated effect of CME
did not eventuate. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12112221
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 3 11011221
Canberra 1 11001110
Hobart 4 11112211
Casey(Ant) 8 23312221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 2312 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug 6 Quiet
20 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may rise to usettled levels
on 18 August due to the possible effect of a CME that was
observed on 15 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
return to mostly quiet levels thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations on 17 August. Minor to moderated degradations in
HF conditions may be possible, especially on mid and high
latitude locations, on 18 August due to an expected rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF condtions are
expected to remain mostly at normal levels on 19 and 20 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
19 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 32 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on
most locations during the UT day today. Minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions may be possible on 18 August
mainly on mid and high latitude locations due an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic conditions on this day. HF conditions
are expectected to remain mostly normal on the following
two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 49800 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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