[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 16 09:02:20 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Active region (AR) 1099 produced several B and C class
x-ray flares during the UT day, 15 August. Expect this trend
to continue until it rotates around the west limb. The largest
flare was a C5.4 peaking at 15/1830UT. AR 1099s sunspot area
grew from 60 mils to 100 mils overnight. SOHO LASCO and STEREO
imagery showed two CMEs during the UT day. The first CME was
backside based on STEREO COR2 imagery (first noted at 15/0742UT
on the south east limb with LASCO C2 image). The second CME was
on the north west limb, first seen on LASCO C2 imagery at 15/0942UT.
This CME was most likely associated with a long duration B-class
flare from AR 1099. STEREO COR2 and COR1 imagery indicate that
the CME is traveling in the earthward direction and is expected
to arrive on 18 August. The 14 August CME is expected to arrive
on 17 August. Note GOES 13 proton flux measurement has returned
to near normal levels. The solar wind speed ranged from 430 to
370 km/s over the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-4 nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 21122112
Darwin 4 21121111
Learmonth - 21122112
Canberra - 00011001
Hobart 4 11112112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 6 Quiet
17 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to to be mostly Quiet today,
16 August. On 17 and 18 August expect Unsettled levels with isolated
cases of Active to Minor Storm levels, particularly at at high
latitudes due to expected arrival of two CMEs occurring on 14
and 15 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Generally weak ionosphere observed in the Antarctic
region during the local night time hours. Noted variable conditions
in equatorial region however mostly near monthly predicted values.
Southern Australian region showed slightly enhanced conditions
during the local night. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions
today and tomorrow with slight to moderate depressions on 18
and 19 August due to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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