[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 18 09:51:29 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. One long
duration B2.1 flare was observed from 0437 to 0712UT. Solar wind
speed gradually decreased from 420 to 380 km/s during the UT
day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed between +/-4nT).
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11200021
Darwin 2 11100021
Townsville 5 11311121
Learmonth NA NANANANA
Canberra 0 00100010
Hobart 1 00200010
Casey(Ant) NA NANANANA
NA=Not available
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 4 Quiet
20 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
on most locations today. Mostly quiet levels of activity may
be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly at normal levels on most locations
today. Similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this region for
the next three days. Some unexpected decrease in T-index value
has been observed. The reasons for this decrease in T-index are
not clear at this stage.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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