[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 19 09:32:37 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              79/19              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. 
One long duration B1.3 flare was observed. This flare 
peaked at 0218UT. Solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from 400 to 360 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz 
component of IMF mostly stayed slightly positive upto 
around 4nT. Solar activity is expected to remain 
at very low levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Darwin               2   11100102
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   01000001
      Casey(Ant)           -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr     3    Quiet 
20 Apr     3    Quiet 
21 Apr     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 
all locations today. Similar levels of activity may be 
expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
today. Similar conditions may be expected for the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Apr    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal 
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this 
region for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    71400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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