[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 17 09:41:58 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              78/17              79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. No flare 
was observed. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 480 to 
440 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly 
stayed slightly positive (around +4nT). Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Mostly quiet on most
locations. Isolated active periods observed 
on high latitude stations. 

Estimated Indices 16 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21210010
      Darwin               3   22210110
      Townsville           4   12221111
      Learmonth            2   211100--
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               1   11100010
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-3210--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   4311 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr     5    Quiet 
18 Apr     5    Quiet 
19 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels 
on most locations today with isolated active periods at high 
latitudes. Mostly quiet levels of activity may be expected for 
the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly at normal levels on most 
locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Apr    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted montly values to depressed by 20% 
      during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal 
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this 
region for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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