[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 17 09:41:58 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 78/17 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. No flare
was observed. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 480 to
440 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly
stayed slightly positive (around +4nT). Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Mostly quiet on most
locations. Isolated active periods observed
on high latitude stations.
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21210010
Darwin 3 22210110
Townsville 4 12221111
Learmonth 2 211100--
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11100010
Casey(Ant) 8 3-3210--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 4311 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
on most locations today with isolated active periods at high
latitudes. Mostly quiet levels of activity may be expected for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly at normal levels on most
locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted montly values to depressed by 20%
during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this
region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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