[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 14 09:50:56 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. One
B-class flare was observed at 0443UT from region 1062 (S18W21).
Solar wind speed remained between 380 and 400 km/s and the
Bz component of IMF between +/-4 nT for most parts of the UT
day today. A partial halo CME was observed around 0900UT
on the north-west limb due to the disappearance of a filament.
It may result in minor strengthening of solar wind stream
late on 15 or early on 16 April. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11111102
Darwin 3 11211101
Townsville 4 11211112
Learmonth 3 21211002
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 -1101001
Casey(Ant) 6 23-21112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 6431 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 5 Quiet
15 Apr 5 Quiet
16 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods
possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at
quiet levels today. Similar level of activity may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated
unsettled periods on 16 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most
location today. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days for most locations with some possibility
of minor degradations on high latitudes on 16 April due
a possible slight rise in geomagnetic activity level on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near monthly predicted values with periods of
minor to mild depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 27 near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 27 near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this
region for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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