[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 15 09:47:48 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. No
flare was observed. Solar wind speed remained mostly between
380 and 420 km/s until 2200UT and then showed a relatively
faster rise to around 460 km/s by 2330UT.The Bz component of
IMF mostly stayed between +/-5 nT until around 2100UT and then
went to -10nT for about two hours. Currently Bz value is near
-4nT. A partial halo CME that was observed on the north-west
limb due to the disappearance of a filament on 13 April, is
not expected to be signinficantly geoeffective. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Mostly quiet, isolated
unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11110123
Darwin 4 11110123
Townsville 5 12111123
Learmonth 5 11120223
Canberra 1 00000012
Hobart 2 01000112
Casey(Ant) 11 33321114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1011 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 4 Quiet
16 Apr 4 Quiet
17 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today with isolated unsettled periods. Mostly quiet levels of
activity may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly at normal levels on most
locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near montly predicted values with periods of some
depressions upto around 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 28 near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 28 near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 28 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this
region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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