[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 13 09:51:04 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next three days. During the last 24 hours the solar wind
speed gradually decreased from around 420 km/s to 380 km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF remained negative upto -10 nT
until 0200UT and then stayed between +/-4 nT for most part
of the remaining day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Mostly unsettled to
active. Periods of minor and major storms
reported by some stations.
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 43333321
Darwin 11 33322331
Townsville 14 43333321
Learmonth 15 43333331
Canberra 7 33222210
Hobart 11 42223321
Casey(Ant) 13 44-32221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1010 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr 5 Quiet
15 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity was high mainly during the
early hours of the day due to strong solar wind stream and
negative Bz. Mostly unsettled to active periods were recorded
through the day with some reports of periods of minor and major
storm conditions during the early hours of the day. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to stay mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on 13 April and then gradually decline to quiet levels
for the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly at normal to fair levels
for most locations on 12 April. Mostly normal conditions may
be expected for the next three days on most locations with
the possibility of minor to mild degradations on high latitude
locations on 13 April due to some possibility of continued
enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
12 Apr 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near monthly predicted values to depressed by
20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 30 near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 32 near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 32 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions are expected to
remain mostly normal for next three days as the geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline to lower levels on 13 April
and then expected to stay low for the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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