[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 12 09:53:01 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days.
During the last 24 hours the ACE spacecraft data showed the solar
wind speed to approximately 370 km/s until 1213 UT, 11 April, when a
shock was observed and the speed increased by 100 km/s to about 470 km/s
due to expected arrival of CME ocurring on 8 April. The Bz component of
the IMF remain in the +/-2 nT range until the arrival of the CME, when
it went southward peaking at approximately -8 nT and has remained mostly
southward for the last 10 hours. Noted CME from the southwest quarter of
of limb on C3 LASCO imagery first observed at 0618UT, 11 April. It is
not expected to be geo-effective and appears to be due to farside
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 11213332
Darwin 8 11203332
Townsville 9 12213332
Learmonth 12 11204442
Canberra 6 00103332
Hobart 9 11113432
Casey(Ant) 12 23313333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 12 Unsettled
13 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The Australian and Antarctic regions geomagnetic activity
was mostly Quiet until approximately 1300 UT, 11 April, when
expected impact of CME occurred. As a result, geomagnetic activity
increased to Unsettled to Active conditions in the Australian
region and Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes with
Major Storm conditions noted at Mawson station. Expect a gradual
return to Mostly Quiet conditions over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 9 April
and is current for interval 12 April only. Isolated cases of
spread F noted at high latitudes. Ocassional sporadic E observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Expect MUFs to be mildly
depressed later in the UT day, 12 April at mid to high latitudes
due to impact of CME in the near Earth environment. Expect HF
conditions gradually return to monthly predicted values over
the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:45%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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