[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 11 09:26:17 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

`COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days. The solar 
wind speed decreased from 470 to 360 km/s during the last 24 hours and 
is presently 360 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +/-3 nT. Active region 1060 produced a long duration 
B-class x-ray flare on 8 April which was associated with a halo coronal 
mass ejection mostly directed eastward. Expect the possible glancing blow 
in the Earthward direction on 11 April. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           3   12111111
      Learmonth            3   21111011
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               2   11101111
      Casey(Ant)           6   3-311021
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   3211 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
12 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Apr     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 9 April and 
is current for interval 11 April only. The Australian and Antarctic 
regions geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet. Today, 11 April 
expect possible impact of CME resulting in Unsettled to Active 
conditions with isolated cases of Minor and Major Storm activity 
at high to mid latitudes. Expect a return to unsettled to quiet 
conditions on 12-13 April. Although, there is a possiblilty the CME 
may be geo-effective on 12 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Apr    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    10    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 9 April 
and is current for interval 12 April only. Isolated cases of 
sporadic E observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions. 
Expect MUFs to be normal predicticted monthly values in the Australian
region today. On 12 April expect mild depressions at mid to high 
latitudes due to possible effects from CME impacting the near 
Earth environment on 11 April. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:43%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    47200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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