[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 10 09:26:47 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days. The solar wind
speed ranged from 580 to 430 km/s during the last 24 hours and is
presently 460 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +2/-4 nT and was predominately southward. Active
region 1060 produced a long duration B-class x-ray flare on 8 April
which was associated with a halo coronal mass ejection mostly directed
eastward. Expect the possible glancing blow in the Earthward direction
on 11 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22122211
Darwin 3 11111211
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 21022221
Canberra 1 11011100
Hobart 4 11122211
Casey(Ant) 9 33321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 4222 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 4 Quiet
11 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 9 April and
is current for interval 11 April only. The Australian region
geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet. The antarctic region was
quiet to unsettled with isolated Active periods. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions during the UT day, 10 April. On 11 April expect
possible impact of CME resulting in Unsettled to Active conditions
with isolated cases of Minor and Major Storm activity at high
to mid latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 9 April
and is current for interval 12 April only. Isolated cases of
sporadic E observed in the Australian region. Spread F observed
at Hobart station during local night time hours. Expect MUFs
to be normal predicticted monthly values in the Australian region
over the next two days. On day three, 12 April, expect depressions
between 10 and 30 percent at mid to high latitudes due to possible
effects from CME impacting the near Earth environment on 11 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:46%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 599 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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