[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 9 09:52:48 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days. The solar 
wind speed ranged from 640 to 530 km/s during the last 24 hours and 
is presently 530 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +/-4 nT. Active region 1060 produced a 
long duration B-class x-ray flare which peaked at 0325 UT and was 
associated with a halo coronal mass ejection mostly directed eastward. 
There may be a glancing blow in the Earthward direction. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32222122
      Darwin               6   32222012
      Townsville           7   -2222222
      Learmonth            9   32223123
      Canberra             6   32122012
      Hobart               8   12233122
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---32113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             21   4244 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Apr     4    Quiet 
11 Apr     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity ranged from 
Quiet to Unsettled levels during the UT day 8 April. The High 
Latitudes ranged from Quiet to Active with isolated cases of 
Minor Storm levels of geomagnetic acyivity. Today, 9 April expect 
activity to be Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases 
of active levels at high latitudes. The following two days are 
expected to return to mostly quiet conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at mid to high Latitudes. 
Isolated cases of sporadic E observed in the Australian region. 
Expect HF condtions to return to normal predicticted monthly 
values in the Australian region over the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:48%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 602 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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