[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 9 09:52:48 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days. The solar
wind speed ranged from 640 to 530 km/s during the last 24 hours and
is presently 530 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-4 nT. Active region 1060 produced a
long duration B-class x-ray flare which peaked at 0325 UT and was
associated with a halo coronal mass ejection mostly directed eastward.
There may be a glancing blow in the Earthward direction.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 32222122
Darwin 6 32222012
Townsville 7 -2222222
Learmonth 9 32223123
Canberra 6 32122012
Hobart 8 12233122
Casey(Ant) 8 ---32113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 4244 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Apr 4 Quiet
11 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity ranged from
Quiet to Unsettled levels during the UT day 8 April. The High
Latitudes ranged from Quiet to Active with isolated cases of
Minor Storm levels of geomagnetic acyivity. Today, 9 April expect
activity to be Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases
of active levels at high latitudes. The following two days are
expected to return to mostly quiet conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at mid to high Latitudes.
Isolated cases of sporadic E observed in the Australian region.
Expect HF condtions to return to normal predicticted monthly
values in the Australian region over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:48%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 602 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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