[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 8 09:48:42 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days. 
The solar wind speed ranged from 550 to 650 km/s during the last 
24 hours and is presently 560 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was predominately southward during 
this same period, peaking at -5nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   32443322
      Darwin              14   32433323
      Townsville          15   32443322
      Learmonth           17   33443332
      Canberra            12   32433212
      Hobart              16   32444322
      Casey(Ant)          20   5-433233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             46   6645 4554     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Apr     6    Quiet 
10 Apr     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity ranged from 
Unsettled to Active levels during the UT day 7 April. Hobart 
and Casey stations showed Unsettled to Minor Storm levels. Maquarie 
Island and Mawson showed Unsettled to Major Storm levels. Today, 
8 April expect activity to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
with isolated cases of active levels. The following two days 
are expected to return to mostly quiet conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: High latitude ionosonde stations showed weak traces 
and depressed HF MUFs, particularly at local night time hours. 
Observed mild depressions at Mid latitudes and some enhanced 
MUFs at low latitudes. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted through 
out the Australian region. Observed sporadic E at the Niue station 
during late evening and early local night time hours. Expect 
HF codtions to return to normal predicticted monthly values in 
the Australian region over the next three days with minor depressions 
possible at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 564 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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