[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 8 09:48:42 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days.
The solar wind speed ranged from 550 to 650 km/s during the last
24 hours and is presently 560 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was predominately southward during
this same period, peaking at -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 15 32443322
Darwin 14 32433323
Townsville 15 32443322
Learmonth 17 33443332
Canberra 12 32433212
Hobart 16 32444322
Casey(Ant) 20 5-433233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 46 6645 4554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 6 Quiet
10 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity ranged from
Unsettled to Active levels during the UT day 7 April. Hobart
and Casey stations showed Unsettled to Minor Storm levels. Maquarie
Island and Mawson showed Unsettled to Major Storm levels. Today,
8 April expect activity to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
with isolated cases of active levels. The following two days
are expected to return to mostly quiet conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: High latitude ionosonde stations showed weak traces
and depressed HF MUFs, particularly at local night time hours.
Observed mild depressions at Mid latitudes and some enhanced
MUFs at low latitudes. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted through
out the Australian region. Observed sporadic E at the Niue station
during late evening and early local night time hours. Expect
HF codtions to return to normal predicticted monthly values in
the Australian region over the next three days with minor depressions
possible at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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