[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 7 09:48:15 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days with 
likely B-class x-ray flares and a slight chance for a C-class 
x-ray flare. The solar wind speed decreased from 650 to 540 km/s 
over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained southward during this same period, peaking 
at -8nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Unsettled to Minor
Storm 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   33444433
      Darwin              20   33353433
      Townsville          25   34454433
      Learmonth           30   33455543
      Canberra            19   33443433
      Hobart              23   234-5443
      Casey(Ant)          16   33333433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice_Springs       19   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           111   (Major storm)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              50   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             49   3447 6544     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    20    active 
08 Apr    12    Unsettled 
09 Apr     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity ranged from 
Unsettled to Minor Storm levels during the UT day 6 April, except 
for Hobart station showed Unsettled to Major Storm levels. Maquarie 
Island and the Antarctic region showed Unsettled to Severe Storm 
levels. Expect activity to slowly dissipate over the UT day, 
7 April with unsettled to Active coditions and isolated cases 
of Minor Storm conditions due to high solar wind stream effects 
and a prolong southerly Bz component of the IMF. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Apr    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    15    depressed 10 to 40%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: High latitude ionosonde stations showed weak to no traces 
during the local night time hours. Isolated cases of sporadic 
E noted through out the Australian region. Expect possible depressed 
conditions for the mid to high latitudes due to storm level
geomagnetic activity today, 7 April. Expect the HF conditions to slowly 
return to normal over the following two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 676 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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