[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 27 09:53:55 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased from 280km/s at 0000UT to 340km/s
at 12UT and is 320km/s at the time of this report. An increase
in the solar wind speed, temperature and density at 12UT is likely
due to a weak co-rotating interaction region ahead of the anticipated
high speed coronal hole wind stream. Bz ranged between +6nT and
-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
over the next 3 days with a slight chance of a C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11111123
Darwin 4 11011113
Townsville 5 12112122
Learmonth 5 21111113
Canberra 2 10001012
Hobart 4 11111122
Casey(Ant) 6 22211123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Sep 7 Quiet
29 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible
Active periods due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
28Sep and 29Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for all regions, with enhancements during local night for
Southern AUS/NZ regions and depressed conditions during local
night for Equatorial regions and local day for Northern AUS regions.
Some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUFs
of ~20% for low latitudes 27Sep along with disturbed periods
for high latitudes. Mostly normal HF support for most regions
28Sep-29Sep with continued MUF depressions for low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 15000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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