[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 26 09:54:27 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Region 1026 was the source of a C2.0 xray flare at 0102UT while
region 1027 produced a B1.1 flare at 0858UT. Solar wind speed
was ~275km/s at the time of this report and is expected to increase
in the next 24 hours due to the arrival of a high speed coronal
hole wind stream. Bz ranged between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days with
a small chance of a C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12111011
Darwin 2 12101002
Townsville 6 13212121
Learmonth 1 11011000
Canberra 0 02000000
Hobart 3 12111011
Casey(Ant) 5 23211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible
Active periods due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected
27Sep and Quiet conditions for 28Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
27 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for all regions, with enhancements after local dawn for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and Equatorial regions. Some disturbed periods
for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUFs of ~20% possible for low
and high latitudes 26Sep and 27Sep with an increase in geomagentic
activity. Mostly normal HF support for 28Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 12200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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