[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 25 09:52:43 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Region 1027 continues to slowly increase in size and both regions
1026 & 1027 magnetic complexity remains unchanged. Solar wind
speed was 300km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between
-2nT and 4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low over the next 3 days with a small chance of a C-class
event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Darwin 2 11001012
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 11001001
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 2 11101111
Casey(Ant) 3 11111112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 7 Quiet
26 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions with possible Active periods on 26Sep due to the
expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
Quiet conditions expected 27Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Sep -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for
mid to high latitudes. Equatorial regions experienced depressed
MUFs of ~20% during local night and Northern AUS regions had
depressed MUFs during local day. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions between 11UT-20UT. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 3 days with continued depressions of ~20% for low latitudes
and disturbed periods for high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 23300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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