[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 28 09:38:00 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with no significant flare activity. Solar wind speed reached
a maximum of 350km/s over the UT and is currently ~320km/s at
the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-7nT during 00UT-04UT
after which its magnitude decreased to +/-2nT. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 33222111
Darwin 6 33111111
Townsville 8 33222221
Learmonth 6 32212111
Canberra 3 22121010
Hobart 7 33222111
Casey(Ant) 11 44321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 7 Quiet
29 Sep 5 Quiet
30 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for all regions, with enhancements for Northern AUS as well as
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Equatorial regions experienced depressed
MUFs after local dawn. Normal ionospheric support expected for
all regions over the next 24 hours with possible enhancements
for mid latitudes. Depressed MUFs of ~20% for low latitudes possible
on 29Sep-30Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 15400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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