[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 7 09:13:06 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed remained
below 400km/s. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet, with an
isolated Unsettled period 03-06UT.
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 13111011
Darwin 3 13110001
Townsville 6 13211122
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 02000001
Hobart 4 23111011
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 3 Quiet
08 Sep 3 Quiet
09 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the last
24 hours, with an isolated Unsettled period 03-06UT. Quiet conditions
expected next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep -7 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values in the
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 06 Sep and depressed in the
N.Aus/equatorial regions, particularly overnight. HF conditions
were mostly Normal in the south. The equatorial regions saw some
considerable periods of sporadic-E around dusk. HF conditions
are expected to be mostly normal next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 39300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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