[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 8 09:31:21 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 370 to 340 km/s over the UT day today. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed close
to the normal almost the whole day today. Solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 01010000
Hobart 3 11121011
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0201 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 3 Quiet
09 Sep 3 Quiet
10 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most locations
on 07 September. Similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days as no significant variation in the ionospheric
conditions is expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep -4 near predicted monthly values
09 Sep -4 near predicted monthly values
10 Sep -4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal across Aus/NZ
regions on 07 September. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 46600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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