[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed dropped back 
below 400km/s. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for 
the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12110011
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               2   11110011
      Casey(Ant)           5   23211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2212 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep     5    Quiet 
07 Sep     3    Quiet 
08 Sep     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24 hours 
and is expected to be mostly Quiet for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Sep    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep    -2    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values in the 
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 05 Sep with some variability and 
overnight depressions in MUFs in the N.Aus/equatorial regions. 
HF conditions were mostly Normal, expected to continue next 
three days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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